48 Reference: Preflop Charts, Pot-Odds & MDF Tables
This chapter is built to be scanned, not read. It collects the numbers you will reach for most often at the table or in a study session into one place: preflop opening ranges, 3-bet and blind-defense guidance, a short-stack push/fold summary, the pot-odds-to-equity conversion, the MDF and value-to-bluff tables, a bet-sizing menu, and the rule of 2 and 4. The theory behind every figure is derived elsewhere in the book — here we just give you the cheat sheet. Bookmark this chapter and flip back to it constantly until the numbers live in your head.
A chart is a default, not a law. Every range and ratio below assumes roughly 100bb, standard rake, no antes, and a thinking-but-unknown opponent. Live games, deep stacks, ante formats, and big reads all push you off these numbers. Memorize the defaults so that your deviations are deliberate, not accidental.
48.1 1. Preflop RFI (Raise-First-In) by position
These are 6-max, ~100bb opening ranges. Raise or fold — limping is not part of an equilibrium RFI strategy outside specific small-blind constructions. Percentages are the share of all 1,326 starting combinations.
| Position | RFI % | Character |
|---|---|---|
| UTG | ~15–18% | Tight, value-dense |
| HJ | ~19–22% | Adds mid pairs, more suited connectors |
| CO | ~26–30% | Wide; most suited, all pairs |
| BTN | ~42–48% | Very wide; any pair, most suited, many offsuit gappers |
| SB | ~36–44% | Wide, raise-or-fold (some configs add a limp range) |
For full-ring (9-handed), the three early seats (UTG/UTG+1/UTG+2) all play near the 6-max UTG range or slightly tighter — roughly 10–15% — and the HJ/CO/BTN/blinds match the 6-max ranges above.
Reference ranges in text form
UTG (~15–18%):
- Pairs: 22+
- Suited aces: ATs+ (plus A5s–A2s as light balancing opens)
- Offsuit aces: AJo+
- Suited broadways: KTs+, QTs+, JTs
- Offsuit broadways: KQo (sometimes KJo)
- Suited connectors: down to ~98s/T9s
HJ (~20%): everything UTG opens, plus:
- Suited aces down to A2s, suited kings down to K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, and suited connectors/one-gappers down to ~76s (plus 97s/86s)
- Offsuit aces ATo+, offsuit broadways KJo, KTo, QJo
- All pairs 22+
CO (~27%): everything HJ opens, plus:
- All suited aces A2s+, suited kings down to K5s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, plus suited connectors and gappers 98s/87s/76s and 97s/86s/75s
- Offsuit aces ATo+ (plus A9o), offsuit broadways and gappers KJo, KTo, K9o, QJo, QTo, JTo, J9o, T9o
- Pairs 22+
This list is roughly 378 combos ≈ 28.5% of 1,326 — squarely inside the 26–30% RFI band above.
BTN (~45%): open essentially any pair, any suited ace, any suited king, most suited queens/jacks down to Q6s/J7s, suited connectors and one-gappers down to 54s/64s, and a broad offsuit block — A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o.
SB (~40%): because you are out of position the whole hand, play a raise-or-fold range close to the CO/BTN in strength but skewed toward hands that flop well heads-up. Open larger (3bb) to discourage cheap BB defense.
Open sizing
- Online 6-max, 100bb: 2.0–2.5bb from every seat (a flat 2.5bb is a fine simplification).
- SB: open larger, ~3bb.
- Live cash: 3–4bb (or “pot”) because live tables call wider; add ~1bb per limper ahead of you.
48.2 2. 3-Bet guidance
Two families of 3-bet exist:
- Linear / merged (value-heavy): used mostly vs. wide late-position opens and vs. weaker players who call too much. Just 3-bet your best hands for value.
- Polarized (value + air): the GTO default vs. a tight open. Strong value at the top (QQ+, AK) plus low-equity bluffs (suited wheel aces, suited gappers) that have blockers and play well when called, while the middle of your range flats.
Typical 3-bet sizing:
- In position (e.g., BTN vs. CO): ~3x the open (open 2.5bb → 3-bet to ~7.5bb).
- Out of position (e.g., SB/BB vs. BTN): ~4x the open (open 2.5bb → 3-bet to ~10–11bb), because you want to deny the caller’s positional advantage and good price.
| Scenario | 3-bet % of total hands (typical) |
|---|---|
| BB vs. BTN open | ~9–13% |
| SB vs. BTN open | ~9–14% (3-bet or fold) |
| CO vs. UTG open | ~4–6% |
| BTN vs. CO open | ~7–10% |
Polarized 3-bet bluffs to know: A5s–A2s and A5o/A4o (wheel blockers, unblock folds), KXs blockers (K9s–K5s), suited one-gappers and broadways that don’t quite make the flat (KJs/QJs as value, T9s/97s as bluffs depending on opener).
48.3 3. Blind defense (facing a steal)
The big blind already has 1bb invested and closes the action, so it defends very wide — but “defend” splits into flat and 3-bet.
| Facing | BB total defense (call + 3-bet) |
|---|---|
| BTN open 2.5bb | ~40–50% |
| CO open 2.5bb | ~30–38% |
| UTG open 2.5bb | ~26–32% |
BB defense frequency is driven by price (you are getting a discount because of your dead blind) and equity realization (you’ll be out of position postflop, which pulls the number back down). Against a min-raise you are getting a big price, so you defend very wide on pot odds and playability; against a 3–4bb open the price worsens and you tighten considerably. Don’t reach for MDF here — MDF assumes a polarized, bluff-heavy bettor, and a preflop opener (especially UTG/CO) is value-heavy, so the auto-profit logic it guards against simply doesn’t apply preflop. Save MDF language for postflop and river spots where the bettor’s range can actually be bluff-heavy. Suited and connected hands flat happily; offsuit junk that flops poorly is folded even at a tempting price. The lower ends of the table above assume meaningful rake — under light or no rake, defend a few points wider.
The SB facing a steal has no such discount once you account for being out of position to the BB behind, so the SB generally plays 3-bet or fold, flatting only a small, strong, mostly-suited slice (or none at all online).
48.4 4. Nash push/fold summary (short stacks, ≤ ~15bb)
When stacks get very short — late in tournaments, especially with antes — open-raising loses its leverage and the game simplifies toward shove or fold. Pure shove/fold is genuinely close to optimal only at roughly ≤10bb. From about 12–20bb, a standard min-raise (risking ~2bb to win the blinds and antes) is usually higher-EV than jamming, and crucially you are not pot-committed — a 2–2.3bb open at 15bb risks ~2bb to win ~1.5bb, so you keep clean raise-fold and raise-call branches and can still get away cheaply. Treat the ranges below as “if you choose to jam” guidance, not a mandate to shove at every depth: they are the open-shover’s equilibrium ranges (heads-up or as the first-in raiser), widening with antes and with fewer players left to act. Use them as a backbone, then tighten when ICM pressure is severe (see the ICM and short-stack chapters).
Approximate first-in jam range by stack depth, if you elect to jam (effective, with antes), from late position:
| Stack (bb) | BTN jam | SB jam | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ~25–35% | ~40–50% | Min-raising is usually higher-EV at this depth; jam only when short-handed, ante-rich, or under ICM |
| 10 | ~38–48% | ~50–60% | Most pairs, most aces, many suited |
| 7 | ~45–55% | ~55–70% | Wide; any ace, any pair, most suited |
| 5 | ~50–65% | ~65–80% | Very wide; folding becomes the bigger error |
| 3 | ~70%+ | ~80%+ | Approaching any-two from the SB |
Calling a shove is much tighter than shoving it. A rough heads-up call-off guide (BB vs. SB jam):
| Stack (bb) | BB call range |
|---|---|
| 15 | 22+, A2s+, A7o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs — roughly 18–22% (~19%) |
| 10 | 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K8s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T9s, 98s — roughly 32–35% |
| 5 | any pair, any ace, any king, most suited, most offsuit broadways — roughly 50–55% |
Nash charts assume the chip is worth its face value (a chipEV model). In a real tournament with pay jumps, ICM makes both shoving and especially calling tighter — sometimes dramatically so near a bubble or final-table pay jump. Do not call off a Nash-correct-looking spot if busting costs you a pay jump and the math hasn’t accounted for it.
48.5 5. Pot odds → required equity
When you face a bet, you are being offered a price. The required equity to call is the fraction of the final pot your call contributes:
\[ \text{Required equity} = \frac{\text{call}}{\text{pot after you call}} = \frac{B}{P + 2B} \]
where \(P\) is the pot before the bet and \(B\) is the amount you must call. Equivalently, by bet-as-fraction-of-pot:
| Bet size (× pot) | You must call… | Required equity to call |
|---|---|---|
| 0.25× | small | ~16.7% |
| 0.33× | ~20.0% | |
| 0.50× | ~25.0% | |
| 0.66× | ~28.5% | |
| 0.75× | ~30.0% | |
| 1.0× (pot) | ~33.3% | |
| 1.5× | ~37.5% | |
| 2.0× (overbet) | ~40.0% |
How to read it: facing a half-pot bet you need 25% equity to break even on a call; facing a pot-sized bet you need 33%. Bigger bets demand more equity. This is the single most useful table in the book — internalize it.
Caveat — these are closing-action thresholds. Every number above assumes your call ends the betting with no more cards or money to come. With more streets to play, a drawing hand can profitably continue below the listed equity on implied odds (the extra you expect to win when you hit), while a dominated bluff-catcher facing further streets must require more than the listed equity on reverse-implied odds (the extra you expect to lose when you call and are already beaten).
For each size, restate the threshold as a hand class. Facing a half-pot river bet (need 25%), a hand that wins 1 in 4 is exactly break-even. If you hold a bluff-catcher you estimate beats 35% of their betting range, that’s a clear call. If it beats only 20%, it’s a fold. Practice converting “what does this beat?” into a number until it’s instant.
48.6 6. MDF & value-to-bluff ratios by bet size
The flip side of pot odds. Minimum Defense Frequency (MDF) is how often the defender must continue so a pure bluff can’t auto-profit; the value-to-bluff ratio is how the bettor balances so a bluff-catcher is indifferent.
\[ \alpha = \frac{B}{P+B}, \qquad \text{MDF} = 1-\alpha = \frac{P}{P+B} \]
| Bet size (× pot) | MDF (defender continues) | Bluffs as % of betting range | Value : Bluff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25× | 80% | ~16.7% | ~5 : 1 |
| 0.33× | 75% | ~20% | ~4 : 1 |
| 0.50× | 67% | ~25% | ~3 : 1 |
| 0.66× | 60% | ~28.5% | ~2.5 : 1 |
| 0.75× | 57% | ~30% | ~2.3 : 1 |
| 1.0× (pot) | 50% | ~33% | ~2 : 1 |
| 1.5× | 40% | ~37.5% | ~1.67 : 1 |
| 2.0× (overbet) | 33% | ~40% | ~1.5 : 1 |
Bigger bets get to bluff more often, and require the defender to fold more often. A pot bet is balanced at 2 value : 1 bluff and the defender folds half. An overbet of 2× pot is balanced at 1.5 : 1 and the defender folds two-thirds. These two tables (pot-odds and MDF) are mirror images: the equity you need to call equals the fraction of their range that is bluffs at balance.
Two practical cautions on MDF:
- MDF is a bettor-discipline check, most relevant on the river and against unknown opponents. On earlier streets, defend by equity and playability, not by hitting an exact MDF number.
- Against opponents who under-bluff (most live players, most low stakes), you are free to fold below MDF — overfolding only loses to a balanced opponent, and they aren’t one. MDF protects you from being exploited; it is not an obligation to call station-style.
48.7 7. Common bet-sizing guide
A menu of standard sizes and when each is right. Sizes are fractions of the current pot.
| Situation | Typical size | Why |
|---|---|---|
| C-bet, dry/static board (K♠7♥2♦, rainbow) | 25–33% | Range bet; deny equity cheaply, you’re rarely outdrawn |
| C-bet, dynamic/wet board (J♥T♥8♣, two-tone) | 66–75% | Charge draws, build pot with your strong hands |
| Turn barrel (value or continued pressure) | 66–100% | Polarize; deny equity, set up river |
| River value bet (thin) | 33–50% | Get called by worse |
| River value/bluff (polarized) | 75–125% | Max value from strong hands, max fold equity for bluffs |
| Overbet (nut-heavy or capped opp.) | 1.25–2× | Leverage a range advantage / deny correct calls |
| Preflop open (online) | 2–2.5bb | Risk little to win the blinds |
| Preflop open (live) | 3–4bb + 1/limper | Charge loose callers |
| 3-bet IP | 3× the open | |
| 3-bet OOP | 4× the open | Deny position/price to the caller |
Sizing should be a function of board texture and range shape, not your hand. Bet the same size with your value and your bluffs on a given texture; let the texture (and how it favors your range vs. theirs) pick the size. The moment your bet size tells the table whether you’re strong, you’ve created a leak observant opponents will mine.
48.8 8. The rule of 2 and 4
A fast way to turn outs into equity without a solver.
- On the flop, with two cards to come: equity ≈ outs × 4.
- On the flop or turn, with one card to come: equity ≈ outs × 2.
- Caveat — ×4 is only bankable if you will actually see both cards (you are all-in, or the action checks through to the river). Facing a flop bet with more money behind, you usually cannot realize both-card equity, so compare your one-card (×2) equity to the call price. Continue below that one-card threshold only on implied odds (the extra you win when you hit) or fold equity (by raising). Don’t use the ×4 number to justify a call when there is more betting to come.
| Draw | Outs | Flop (×4) | One card (×2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot | 4 | ~16% | ~8% |
| Flush draw | 9 | ~36% | ~18% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | ~32% | ~16% |
| Flush + gutshot | 12 | ~48% | ~24% |
| Open-ended + flush (combo) | 15 | ~54%* | ~30% |
| Two overcards | 6 | ~24% | ~12% |
| Set → full house/quads | 7 | ~28%† | ~14% |
*The ×4 rule slightly overcounts above ~8 outs (you can’t double-count the same card twice); for big draws (13+ outs) subtract a couple of points — 15 outs is really ~54%, not 60%.
†A set is the opposite case — the ×4 rule under-counts it. A set fills up to a full house or quads roughly 1 in 3 (~33%) by the river, not the ~28% the static 7-out figure suggests, because its outs grow once a fourth board card arrives: any card that pairs the turn or river (not just the original board ranks) now makes the boat. Count a flopped set as a ~33% improver to a full house over two cards.
Memorize three anchor numbers: flush draw ≈ 36% (flop) / 18% (one card), OESD ≈ 32% / 16%, gutshot ≈ 16% / 8%. From those three you can reconstruct almost any spot by adding or subtracting outs.
48.9 9. Worked example: tying it all together
You hold 9♥8♥ in the BB. BTN opens to 2.5bb; you’re in the defense range (suited connector, great price) so you call. Pot is now ~5.5bb.
Flop: T♥7♣2♦. You check, BTN c-bets 2bb into 5.5bb (~36% pot).
- Pot odds: you must call 2 to win a final pot of 5.5 + 2 + 2 = 9.5, so call 2 into 9.5 → required equity ≈ 21%.
- Your equity: open-ended straight draw (any J or 6 makes the straight) = 8 outs. With one card to come the rule of 2 gives ≈ 16%; with two cards to come the rule of 4 gives ≈ 32%. Add a little for the backdoor heart flush (you hold two hearts and the T♥ is on board, so you need running hearts) and backdoor straight equity and you are realistically around 30%+ equity to improve or take it away. (Note: your 9♥ and 8♥ are middling cards here, not overcards — the board’s Ten is higher than both, so simply pairing the 9 or 8 makes only a vulnerable middle pair that often isn’t the best hand. Your equity comes from the straight outs, not from “overcards.”)
- Decision: be careful which equity figure you compare. The ×4 number (32%) is what you’d have if you could see both cards, but you can’t bank that here — there’s more betting to come and you’re not all-in (see the rule-of-2-and-4 caveat). Compare instead your one-card equity (~16%, plus a couple of points of backdoor equity) to the 21% price. That’s marginally under the raw threshold, yet the continue is still clear on implied odds: when you complete the well-disguised nut straight you stand to win far more than the current pot from overpairs and top pair, and you keep fold equity if you choose to raise. With a strong draw and position-denial value, raising is also viable — but a call keeps BTN’s bluffs in.
Turn: J♠ — you make the nut straight (7-8-9-T-J), and because the jack is a spade your backdoor heart draw bricks: with only the T♥ on board and two hearts in your hand, no live flush draw exists on this turn or the river. Pot is ~9.5bb; effective stacks ~95bb. Now flip to the sizing and value/bluff logic: you have a nut advantage as the caller who just hit — you hold the only straight (9♥8♥), though the BTN opener still keeps the overall range edge with its disproportionate overpairs and sets. You want value from top pair (any Jx), overpairs, two-pair (JT, T7, J7), and sets — none of which can be a “worse straight” (your 98 is the only straight this board makes), but all of which will pay off a made straight. A 66–75% pot bet (or a check-raise if BTN bets) is standard; you are betting for value and, on this size, balance would pair roughly 2.3–2.5 value combos with ~1 bluff (per the MDF table — 66% → 2.5:1, 75% → 2.3:1) if you were the one constructing a polarized range.
Board-pairing river — the second deuce (T♥7♣2♦J♠2♠): this is not a blank. Pairing the board brings full houses (and quads) into BTN’s range: every set that was already there now fills up (TT → tens full, JJ → jacks full, 77 → sevens full) and 22 makes quad deuces — and every one of those now beats your straight. The key hand-reading point: there are no bare sets left for you to value-bet against. They have all become boats, and boats don’t call a thin bet — they raise. What your straight still beats here is top pair (any Jx), overpairs (AA–QQ, which are now only one pair on this board), and two-pair (JT, J7, T7) — those one- and two-pair hands are the only hands a value bet can target. So a ~75%-pot “thin value” bet is now an awkward bet: it mostly gets called by the worse one- and two-pair you beat and raised by the full houses you don’t, which is no longer a clean value spot. Bet smaller to keep the worse pairs in without bloating the pot against boats, or simply check — and fold your straight to a raise, because the former sets aren’t bluffing here. And if they instead jam a 1.5× pot overbet at you, your 9♥8♥ is demoted from the nuts to a bluff-catcher, precisely because the deuce paired: a polarized jam now represents those full houses (plus busted draws as bluffs), not worse straights. A 1.5× bet means you need ~37.5% equity, so you call only if you beat at least 37.5% of their jamming range — a read-dependent decision the pot-odds table just framed for you.
This is the whole point of a reference chapter: a single hand pulls in RFI ranges, blind defense, the rule of 2, pot-odds-to-equity, sizing, and MDF — and every number you needed was on the page in front of you.
48.10 10. One-page summary
- Pot odds: half-pot → need 25%; pot → need 33%; 2× pot → need 40%.
- MDF: half-pot → defend 67%; pot → defend 50%; 2× pot → defend 33%.
- Value:bluff at balance: half-pot → 3:1; pot → 2:1; 2× pot → 1.5:1.
- Rule of 2 and 4: flush draw ≈ 36/18, OESD ≈ 32/16, gutshot ≈ 16/8.
- Opens: ~2.5bb online, 3–4bb live. 3-bets: 3× IP, 4× OOP.
- RFI: UTG ~15%, CO ~27%, BTN ~45%, SB ~40%.
- Short stacks: ≲10bb → shove/fold; ~12–20bb → min-raise (you’re not pot-committed, keep raise-fold/raise-call branches); when you do jam, shove wide, call tight, tighten further for ICM.
Keep this page reachable until the day you stop needing it — which is the day you’ve truly learned the material.